Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 18.576638 20.224894 22.049425 24.238500 26.820608 29.804764 33.568359
2024-10-13 15.910478 18.130567 20.796212 24.312461 28.961591 35.115958 44.312634
2024-10-20 13.937276 16.458148 19.690150 24.317281 31.126430 41.505853 60.499557
2024-10-27 12.682599 15.453550 19.223550 25.063308 34.670672 51.927767 93.758383
2024-11-03 11.352376 14.135133 18.083378 24.568175 36.231253 60.489311 140.738734
2024-11-10 10.371844 13.157070 17.256980 24.361532 38.298165 72.287345 247.311576
2024-11-17 9.660273 12.466681 16.742869 24.550338 41.310803 90.585544 662.496771
2024-11-24 9.066248 11.874058 16.283299 24.723757 44.488870 115.979032 18975.814336
2024-12-01 8.588569 11.401219 15.943239 25.041523 48.324206 156.336005 NaN
2024-12-08 8.154630 10.948583 15.569028 25.200635 51.975959 216.477807 NaN
2024-12-15 7.722641 10.456566 15.059482 24.954596 54.383431 293.771260 NaN
2024-12-22 7.403739 10.118772 14.782148 25.166122 58.664232 480.953609 NaN
2024-12-29 7.050446 9.716386 14.378508 25.101829 62.551722 947.613235 NaN
2025-01-05 6.752260 9.386464 14.081069 25.263341 68.033623 4567.848566 NaN
2025-01-12 6.470629 9.064130 13.764848 25.325186 73.637871 NaN NaN
2025-01-19 6.286770 8.896318 13.734056 26.165378 85.434815 NaN NaN
2025-01-26 6.001988 8.530087 13.262477 25.660041 88.556440 NaN NaN
2025-02-02 5.768506 8.239435 12.917398 25.455685 94.182112 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 5.588364 8.031939 12.723966 25.671419 104.517460 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 5.421502 7.836959 12.536304 25.866946 116.289819 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 5.278106 7.675211 12.403253 26.215905 132.394399 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 5.134143 7.503088 12.229820 26.391892 148.803175 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 4.974061 7.291599 11.949143 26.128718 158.865318 NaN NaN